Electrification Gains Momentum, But Overall Market Faces Heavy Headwinds

H1 2025 EU Commercial Vehicle Market: A Deep Dive

Electrification Gains Momentum, But Overall Market Faces Heavy Headwinds

Amid persistent inflation and economic uncertainty, the first half of 2025 proved to be a tough stretch for the European commercial vehicle sector. Across the board, key metrics in freight and passenger transport sectors declined sharply. While electrification is advancing, its current growth pace has not yet been sufficient to offset the wider market downturn.

Sharp Downturn Across All Segments

Light Commercial Vehicles (Vans)

New van registrations fell by 13.2% year-on-year, marking one of the steepest contractions among all segments. Germany led the decline with a 14.7% drop, followed by France (-12%) and Italy (-1 1.7%).  Spain stood  out as the only major market to register positive growth, up 11.2%.

Medium and Heavy Trucks

Truck registrations plummeted by 15.4%, totaling 155,367 units. The heavy-duty segment declined by 14.5%while medium-duty truck registrations dropped by a concerning 20%. Germany took the biggest hit(-27.5%), with France (-18.8%), Spain (-13.6%), and Italy (-13.3%) also posting double-digit decreases

Buses (Urban and Intercity)

Bus registrations dropped 4.4% compared to H1 2024. Italy experienced the largest drop at -24.5%, followed by Spain (-10.7%), France (-8%), and Germany (-3.2%). However, Sweden (+222.4%) and Belgium (+76.7%)bucked the trend, showing substantial growth-highlighting a regional acceleration in fleet electrification.

Shifting Powertrains: Progress, But Not Enough

Van Powertrain Trends

Diesel Vans remain dominant, with 598,001 units registered, down 15.6%, representing 82% market share (vs.84.3% in H1 2024).

Petrol Vans saw a sharp 29.8% decline, accounting for just 4.9%.

Electrically Chargeable Vans jumped to a 9.5% share (up from 5.8% last year), becoming the fastest-growing category.

Hybrid Vans grew modestly by 7.1%, reaching a 2.6% market share

Bus Powertrain Trends

Electric Buses increased their market share to 21.6% (from 16.4%), with Germany leading at +105.2%and Belgium recording a nearly fivefold increase in units.

Hybrid-Electric Buses faced a 35.5% drop, now accounting for only 6.9% of the market.

Diesel Buses continued to dominate with 64.7% market share, down from 66.2% last year.

Market Insight: Transition Stalls Amid Tougher Realities

The data paints a sobering picture-while new energy vehicles are gaining ground, the broader commercial vehicle market is in retreat. Economic headwinds, cautious business sentiment, and under developed infrastructure have all combined to stall momentum, particularly in the truck segment.

More concerning is the simultaneous slump in both medium and heavy-duty trucks and the sharp decline in hybrid bus registrations-signaling deeper structural constraints within the sector. Only through continued breakthroughs in electric and autonomous technology, alongside strong policy and infrastructure support, can the European commercial vehicle market re-enter a sustainable growth phase.