2024 Commercial Vehicle Market Map: New Growth Emerges amid Structural Differentiation.

In the commercial vehicle market of 2024, while the overall market is under pressure and in a downward trend, breakthrough growth in niche sectors and the deepening of global layout are reshaping the competitive landscape of the industry.

First, overall pressure and local bright spots coexist

In 2024, the commercial vehicle market as a whole showed an adjustment trend. The annual production and sales reached 3.805 million and 3.873 million units respectively, with year-on-year declines of 5.8% and 3.9% respectively.

Behind this performance, the continuous low operation of freight rates constitutes the main constraint factor, directly affecting the willingness of logistics enterprises to purchase vehicles. However, the differentiation in the segmented markets is particularly significant:The bus market defied the trend and rose, with production and sales increasing by 2% and 3.9% respectively, reaching a total of 508,000 and 511,000 units. Pickup trucks and new energy commercial vehicles also maintained a growth trend,As a bright spot in the market, the truck market performed weakly, with production and sales dropping by 6.8% and 5% respectively year-on-year. Among them, the micro truck category was most affected, with an annual sales volume of 433,200 units, a year-on-year sharp decline of 31%.The performance of bus enterprises has been particularly outstanding, with all four listed companies achieving leapfrog growth. Zhongtong Bus led the market with a growth rate of 51.49%. The growth rates of Yutong Bus, King Long Motor and Ankai Bus also reached 28.48%, 19.07% and 34.87% respectively, demonstrating strong market resilience.The performance of bus enterprises has been particularly outstanding, with all four listed companies achieving leapfrog growth. Zhongtong Bus led the market with a growth rate of 51.49%. The growth rates of Yutong Bus, King Long Motor and Ankai Bus also reached 28.48%, 19.07% and 34.87% respectively, demonstrating strong market resilience.

Second, the overseas expansion strategy builds a second growth curve

The overseas market is becoming a key handle for Chinese commercial vehicle enterprises to break through the growth predicament. In 2024, the export volume of commercial vehicles exceeded 900,000 units, with a significant year-on-year increase, forming a sharp contrast with the domestic market.The global layouts of leading enterprises each have their own characteristics:Faw Jiefang South Africa's terminal sales exceeded 5,000 units for the first time, topping the South African market with an 18% market share. Byd's new energy buses exported 3,582 units, maintaining its global championship position with a 23.19% market share,Sinotruk exported 135,000 heavy-duty trucks, maintaining a steady growth of 4%,a deeper global layout is unfolding.Foton Motor has planned the "3+6+3" strategy, aiming to achieve overseas sales of 300,000 units by 2030.Faw Jiefang will set up five overseas branches, promote the localization process of R&D and marketing, and target the high-end European market.Roland Berger predicts that by 2030, the proportion of overseas local production of commercial vehicles in China will reach 50%, marking a new stage of quality and efficiency improvement in globalization.

2025: Policy Dividends and "Three Modernizations" Opportunities

Looking forward to 2025, the macro policy environment will inject new impetus into the commercial vehicle market.The National Information Center predicts that under the combined effect of proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, the demand for commercial vehicles is expected to reach 4.1 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 6.5%.The direction of industry transformation is becoming increasingly clear. Roland Berger pointed out that the "three modernizations" will become the core growth poles:

New energy: Driven by the dual carbon goals, new energy heavy-duty trucks and other categories will accelerate their penetration

Internationalization: The increase in global market share and the deepening of localized production constitute the dual engines of growth

Digitalization and intelligence: The application of intelligent connected technologies reshapes product competitiveness and operational models.The market adjustment in 2024 is actually a crucial period for the transformation and upgrading of the industry. Driven by the dual forces of new energy and globalization, China's commercial vehicle industry is making a leap from scale expansion to high-quality development. 2025 May become a key juncture for reshaping the industry landscape.