The global commercial vehicle landscape is reconfiguring

The global commercial vehicle landscape is reconfiguring: The strong alliance between Toyota and Daimler and the global breakthrough Path of Chinese Automakers.

I. Strategic Integration of Japanese and European Giants: Toyota and Daimler join forces to create a new force in the truck industry.

On June 10th local time, Toyota Motor and Daimler Trucks officially announced the final plan for the integration of their commercial vehicle resources - the two sides will establish a joint venture holding company (each holding 25%) to fully control Hino Motors and Mitsubishi Fuso trucks and buses. The new structure is scheduled to start operations in April 2026. This merger, hailed by the industry as a "milestone in Japan's commercial vehicle sector", aims to address the dual challenges of the global automotive industry's electrification transformation and low-carbon emission reduction.

The CEO of the new company is Karl Deppen, the CEO of Mitsubishi Fuso. He stated directly at the press conference: "The survival rule of the commercial vehicle industry highly relies on the scale effect. The domestic market in Japan can no longer support independent competition among multiple brands." This statement reflects a common problem in the industry: As Chinese automakers accelerate breakthroughs in electric heavy-duty trucks and hydrogen fuel cell technology (for instance, CATL predicts that 50% of China's truck market will be electrified by 2028), Japanese and European enterprises have no choice but to enhance their competitiveness through resource integration. It is worth noting that this cooperation was not smooth sailing - the deal that was postponed in 2023 due to the data fraud scandal of Hino Engines was not resumed until the beginning of this year after Hino paid a $1.2 billion fine, highlighting the crucial role of compliance and technological trust in industry consolidation.

From a technical perspective, Toyota regards trucks as the core scenario for the commercialization of hydrogen fuel cells, while Daimler focuses on electric drive systems and autonomous driving technologies. Both sides emphasized in the statement that the merged entity will promote the decarbonization process in the transportation sector through joint research and development, supply chain collaboration and capacity optimization. Jefferies analysts predict that the equity value of the new company is approximately 5.6 billion euros (about 45.92 billion yuan), and it will form a duopoly pattern of Japanese commercial vehicles together with the Isuzu-UD truck camp.

2. Chinese Automakers' Global Breakthrough: BAIC Foton's Latin American Ecological Layout Experiment.

While Japanese and European enterprises are accelerating their integration, Chinese commercial vehicle brands are rewriting the global competitive landscape with a model of "technology empowerment + ecological synergy". In April 2025, the modern commercial vehicle base jointly built by BAIC Foton and Brazilian AGRALE was officially put into operation. The rollout of the first localized light truck marked the establishment of the first production line of a Chinese brand in Brazil. The 197,000-square-meter park is planned to have an annual production capacity of 5,000 vehicles and reserves space for the expansion of heavy truck and pickup truck production lines.

The core competitiveness of this project is reflected in the three-dimensional localization strategy:

Supply chain reconfiguration: Integrate local component suppliers in Brazil and build a regionalized supporting system;

Localization of talents: Launch the "Thousand Local Talents" recruitment plan and establish a technical training center;

Industrial synergy: In response to Brazil's "reindustrialization" strategy, promote the "industrial chain synergy going global" model.

Data shows that in the first quarter of 2025, BAIC Foton's overseas sales exceeded 40,000 units, increasing by 9.5% year-on-year. Among them, the growth rate in the Latin American market reached 180%. With the 12 millionth vehicle rolling off the production line at the Brazilian factory, its global industrial layout has covered more than 130 countries and regions. It has built 22 KD factories and 18 regional parts centers, forming an integrated response network of "reserve - allocation - service".

In the new energy sector, BAIC Foton's technological layout can be traced back to 2003. Currently, it has established a differentiated competitive edge globally: in the Brazilian market, it has launched the "Aiyike" smart ecosystem brand; in the Thai market, it offers photovoltaic charging and battery swapping solutions; in Malaysia, it has become a leading brand of pure electric buses; and in Mexico and Australia, it has achieved commercial operation of hydrogen fuel cell buses. To strive for the sales targets of 50,000 units in Latin America by 2025 and 150,000 units by 2030, it has launched the "Super Power Alliance" program, collaborating with enterprises such as CATL, Teldrive, and Cummins. Through a dual-wheel drive model of "technology output + local operation", it provides a full-chain solution from new energy vehicles to smart charging.

3.Competitive Logic under Industry Transformation: The Dual Game of Scale Effect and Ecological Capability

The current commercial vehicle industry is undergoing a "major transformation unseen in a century" : on the one hand, the transformation towards electrification and intelligence is forcing enterprises to reduce R&D costs through mergers (for instance, Toyota and Daimler share the three-electricity technology); On the other hand, Chinese automakers have broken through the traditional competitive framework with an ecological approach - upgrading from "product export" to "standard export". For instance, BAIC Foton has driven the market in Latin America to transform from "product import" to "technology export", forming a new industrial model of "regional drive + global resonance".

It is worth noting that integration and expansion still face practical challenges: the Toyota Daimler alliance needs to cope with the pressure of import tariffs in the United States, while Chinese auto companies also need to break through barriers such as technology certification and localization services in overseas markets. However, it is undeniable that when carbon emission regulations become stricter and autonomous driving technology accelerates the implementation, the competition in the future commercial vehicle market will not only be the performance contest of a single product, but also the comprehensive competition between the industrial ecosystem and global operation capability.